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2019 Utah Housing Forecast

Last month, we told you about some bigger housing trends across the US and what is predicted for 2019. But recently, we sat down with Windermere’s chief economist Matthew Gardner to talk about trends that will specifically affect Utah.

Bubble and Balance
Is there a housing bubble? What is unemployment doing? Gardner predicts the psychology of buyers and sellers will play a significant role as the housing market becomes more balanced. The level of buyers and sellers will begin to equal out and we’ll see a more healthy level of home price appreciation.
Our take: The SunCrest outlook shows those subtle changes are already starting to re-shape the landscape. All that pent up buyer demand may soften as more sellers list their homes in the spring and summer, so we anticipate an uptick in the number of days a home is on the market as well as a more gradual home value appreciation instead of instant equity.

Interest rates

Gardner isn’t as bullish as some of his peers, but is calling for rates to raise to just under 5.5% by year’s end. This forecast is still below the historical average but those who have been in the market since the latest recession may reconsider moving when faced with giving up their 3% rate.

Our take: In SunCrest, we anticipate some homeowners will look at home equity lines of credit and choose to renovate or remodel, rather than selling, especially if they’d be looking to relocate nearby. If rates rise and home appreciation returns to normal, it may cause would-be sellers to stay put.

Millennials
This isn’t the first time we’ve written about Millenials (ages 21-37), and wont be the last. Gardner highlighted them as the country’s largest group of home buyers, but they’re facing a rising affordability challenge. Low inventory, rising interest rates, and eight years of price appreciation are causing some Millenials to stay in rentals (or with parents) longer as they jockey for position in the market.
Our take: The average Utah millennial will face an affordability challenge if looking for a single family home in SunCrest. Outside of the Stoneleigh Heights townhomes, the average SunCrest median single family home price was $495,383 in 2018, well above the average purchase price Millenials are spending. This has a real effect on the way you market your home when selling, and how to make the right offer when buying.

Source:
Windermere Economics
Ellie Mae - Sales between Jan. 18- Dec. 18
keepingcurrentmatters.com
utahrealestate.com

Our SunCrest Market Update is a hyper-local analysis of the most up-to-date information regarding the SunCrest real estate market.  The previous month’s SunCrest housing information and future editions are released monthly.